Home World News Moscow promises to adapt in the event of Swedish and Finnish membership

Moscow promises to adapt in the event of Swedish and Finnish membership


Finland and Sweden intend to formalize a joint candidacy, from Monday May 16, to join the transatlantic Alliance. The Finnish executive was the first to say it was ready to get rid of ” without delay “ of its tradition of neutrality, and the social democrats in power in Sweden must follow the movement, Sunday, May 15. In the event of membership, after ten months of procedure, NATO will have gained 1,300 km of common border with Russia. Moscow promises to draw all the consequences, with a view to rebalancing the forces.


Thursday, April 14, the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned on Telegram, in case of rallying: “There can be no question of a non-nuclear Baltic”, according to the current number two of the Security Council of Russia. A month ago, the Kremlin threatened to retaliate with deployments of infantry and anti-aircraft systems in northwest Russia, as well as naval forces in the Gulf of Finland. Not far from there, Lithuania would be caught between Belarus, an ally of Russia, and the enclave of Kaliningrad, where Iskander tactical missiles (capable of carrying nuclear charges) have been deployed since September.

→ THE FACTS. Finland is making great strides towards NATO

At the end of April, the Russian television channel Rossia-1 relayed a message of intimidation, with a model of the future Sarmat missile – nicknamed Satan 2 by Westerners – capable of razing the main European capitals in a few minutes from the enclave of Kaliningrad. And, to give a foretaste of what could await Scandinavia, the Russian air force has increased its incursions into Swedish and Finnish airspace.

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For a small membership

Since then, Moscow seems to have diversified its approach. More measured, Russia is trying to reduce to the minimum the potential place of the two Scandinavians in the transatlantic Alliance. If membership becomes a reality, Russia will be“obligated to take reciprocal measures, military-technical and otherwise, to put an end to threats to its national security”, replied the Russian Foreign Ministry in a press release. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow’s response would depend on“advanced military infrastructure”at the Russian borders.

The Kremlin is aware of this: feverishly, Finland and Sweden want to join NATO, but without exposing themselves too much. These two Nordic countries, once their request for candidacy has been formulated, will have to negotiate their level of contribution, ahead of the NATO summit, expected in Madrid on June 29 and 30. A report published just a month ago for Finnish MPs urged caution: “Membership would not oblige Finland to accept nuclear weapons, permanent bases or troops on its territory. »

The spectrum of the veto

Moscow is also not neglecting the diplomatic game to prevent the Western camp from strengthening itself. The unanimity of the thirty member states of NATO is not self-evident. At the end of April, the Croatian Social Democratic President, Zoran Milanovic, said he was opposed to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, as long as the electoral law in Bosnia and Herzegovina was not modified in favor of minorities. croats.

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→ READ. At the gates of NATO, Finland aims for food self-sufficiency

Since then, things seem to have returned to normal but, on Friday May 13, it was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who declared that the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO would ” a mistake “. “We don’t have a positive opinion”he insisted, accusing Stockholm and Helsinki “to harbor PKK terrorists”the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.

For now, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, personally congratulated by Vladimir Putin on April 4, the day after his re-election, is keeping silent. He too could veto the entry of the two countries into NATO. Just as it is now blocking the embargo on Russian oil at European level.

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